ACUS11 KWNS 280023
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280023=20
ARZ000-280230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0582
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0723 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Areas affected...central to northern Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 280023Z - 280230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for severe hail, wind, and tornadoes will
likely increase in the coming hours for portions of northern, and
perhaps central, Arkansas. Watch issuance is likely.

DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar mosaics and surface observations
show convection continuing to develop along a weak leading cold
front/outflow boundary across southern MO and far northwest AR. Over
the next few of hours, additional development along the front is
anticipated as the boundary pushes into a buoyancy axis featuring
MLCAPE values of 3500-4000 J/kg and as a reinforcing cold front
overtakes the convective band.

Pre-frontal convection appears possible based on the recent failed
attempt at initiation near Fort Smith, AR. However, a 22 UTC ACARs
sounding from LZK sampled lingering inhibition, which has not been
captured well by recent high-res guidance. Consequently, the
confidence in the development of discrete, pre-frontal supercells is limited.=20

Nonetheless, some severe risk will likely materialize at least
across north-central AR in the coming hours. Storm modes will likely
feature a combination of organized clusters and embedded supercells
given focused frontal ascent, strong deep-layer wind shear, and
nearly 300 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH (sampled by the KLZK and KNQA VWPs). All
convective hazards will be possible with this activity, though the
potential for significant tornadoes may be most pronounced with any
pre-frontal supercells that can develop. Watch issuance appears
probable for portions of the area as convection migrates eastward.

..Moore/Mosier.. 04/28/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7FL0disIphSxxd-KgMXXxn6XQpikXVXEtbR-v8a9RWkTsMkkS3rMm6f4plxGVllp0js3yppET= zQJ_ysNBT1reOMlJko$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...

LAT...LON 36379330 36489292 36489146 36339122 36149112 35879118
34989193 34779227 34579266 34529304 34549354 34659387
34909402 35199392 35559374 36199346 36379330=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-145 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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