ACUS11 KWNS 280111
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280110=20
ILZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-280315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0584
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0810 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Areas affected...Southern and southeast Missouri

Concerning...Tornado Watch 160...162...

Valid 280110Z - 280315Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 160, 162 continues.

SUMMARY...The tornado potential appears to be increasing across
south-central to southeast Missouri as a trio of supercells migrate
into a strongly sheared environment.

DISCUSSION...Recent GOES IR imagery has show steady intensification
of a trio of supercells across southern MO over the past 30 minutes
as convection begins to migrate into an axis of very high (3000-4000
J/kg) MLCAPE. Although regional radars are primarily sampling the
mid-levels of the storms, organizing/intensifying mesocyclones have
also been noted. While it remains somewhat unclear whether or not
these cells have become surface based (a weak outflow boundary was
noted earlier upstream closer to KSGF), these observations point
towards steady intensification.

Downstream, regional VWPs are sampling ample 0-1 km SRH on the order
of 350 m2/s2. The combination of strong low-level shear and very
high buoyancy is supporting a plume of STP values between 4-6
downstream into southeast MO. The approaching cells will have long
residence time within this environment, which should continue to
favor intensification and an increasing tornado threat - including
the potential for significant tornadoes - if cells currently are, or
can soon become, rooted near the surface.

..Moore.. 04/28/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8Jhhz-smJ_C1bpt5kuteUD8Kl49bn2RcX60BIDTFuboGFxZOcKv2CpuPFZb4p0LLDK0RFUqxQ= cUq_e80xj-SIJnhiOY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON 36629243 37179158 37409129 37529095 37578939 37438908
37228898 36908900 36668902 36358921 36168949 36339212
36409235 36459245 36629243=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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