ACUS11 KWNS 280135
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280135=20
TXZ000-280330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0585
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0835 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Areas affected...north and northeast Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 164...

Valid 280135Z - 280330Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 164
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for severe hail will continue across
north/northeast Texas for the next few hours. Hail sizes may be as
high as 3 inches.

DISCUSSION...Splitting supercells continue to migrate east/northeast
away from the DFW metro area and have recently produced hail ranging
from 1 to 2 inches in diameter. Recent 00 UTC RAOBs from FWD and SHV
both sampled very strong deep-layer wind shear on the order of 50
knots with limited low-level SRH noted in recent KFWS VWP
observations. This kinematic environment favors splitting supercells
(which have been observed) as well as very large hail - possibly as
high as 3 inches based on environmental analogs. No appreciable
change in the thermodynamic or kinematic environment is anticipated
for the next several hours aside from muted diurnal stabilization of
the warm sector boundary layer, so the potential for robust
supercells should persist in the near term.

Additional attempts at deep convection continue to be noted to the
southwest across central TX. Forcing for ascent is more nebulous
with southwestward extent, and the onset of nocturnal cooling should
gradually diminish ascent within the dryline circulation.
Consequently, confidence in sustained/robust convection remains
limited, but trends will need to be monitored for the need for
spatial expansion of WW 164.

..Moore.. 04/28/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5la4nn8Xz-ug2cOn2x940837BccFPa18eMVMPxsFLAx7NlCdMlRW0hsxBzLYx6AaSogJDfIFf= 1Ju25Ao5nprN8n7k80$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...

LAT...LON 33179675 33589585 33729525 33689483 33539457 33279443
33109447 32869460 32669491 32289599 32329651 32469681
32709686 33179675=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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