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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0591

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Apr 28 12:46:52 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 281246
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 281246=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-281445-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0591
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0746 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

    Areas affected...northern Texas into southern Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 168...

    Valid 281246Z - 281445Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 168
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Large hail and eventually damaging winds appear likely
    along the warm frontal corridor crossing the Red River Valley this
    morning.

    DISCUSSION...A multicell storm complex is currently over
    Baylor/Archer Counties, TX, with impressive morning satellite
    presentation with overshooting tops and enhanced-v signature. These
    storms are riding along the warm front, which extends east/northeast
    into southeast OK. South of this boundary, a very moist and unstable
    air mass exists, with MLCAPE already over 3500 J/kg at 12Z.=20

    Given effective deep-layer shear of 50-60 kt and 100 kt high-level
    flow, this complex is forecast to persist through the morning, and
    perhaps strengthen as SBCIN is reduced further. In that case, more
    of a rightward propagation is possible.=20

    Elsewhere, strong elevated instability exists well north of the warm
    front. The 12Z OUN sounding shows MUCAPE over 4000 J/kg, along with
    ample deep-layer shear. Should any cells form within the broad warm
    advection zone, large hail would be likely.

    ..Jewell.. 04/28/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_TaRw-aoxL3F2N42nbvTEt_1JYBsrHLz25u5c6896y2piLKMQ_-3SmyHJ6LOZEK3_Ll3o1Bag= 47vbCNBICE2fGxXxUA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

    LAT...LON 33629614 33569656 33669724 33709799 33599869 33529929
    33579949 33689953 33939951 34449892 34779788 34899716
    34909621 34599581 34309578 33839581 33629614=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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