ACUS11 KWNS 281708
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281707=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-281900-

Mesoscale Discussion 0595
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1207 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Areas affected...North Texas and far south Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 281707Z - 281900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Supercell development is expected to become increasingly
likely this afternoon with the potential for very large hail and a
few tornadoes. A Tornado Watch is likely.

DISCUSSION...Latest mesoanalysis places a surface low over northwest
TX with an attendant outflow boundary (remnant from early-day
storms) stretching east across north TX, to the north of the
Dallas-Ft. Worth metroplex. A dryline was becoming better defined
from the vicinity of the surface low south-southwest through the TX
Big Country into eastern Permian Basin into Concho Valley. Latest
trends in visible satellite imagery indicate a developing cumulus
field in the vicinity of the surface triple point where objective
analysis suggests that MLCAPE has increased to as high as 3500-4000
J/kg with decreasing cap strength.

Short-term model guidance is in reasonably good agreement in
depicting the development of one or multiple supercells from the
vicinity of the triple point east along the outflow boundary by as
early as 19z. Given the magnitude of buoyancy and the presence of a
strong mid/upper-level wind field across the southern Plains today,
the setup appears favorable for long-lived storms capable of very
large hail (upwards of 3-4" in diameter) as the primary hazard.
Modest low-level shear currently being sampled by the KFWS VWP and
evident in plan-view objective fields may tend to limit the overall
tornado potential. However, given that expected storm motions for a right-moving supercell is generally along the orientation of the
outflow boundary, the potential for a few tornadoes appears to be
greatest with any storms that can favorably interact with that
boundary.

..Mead/Guyer.. 04/28/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_OJqOTMxCK29NVODgG2m73BdonGMs8SHPWgAGw96JJoQ7OwNqXgcTmXYNkimGWRRIiYTlO7mp= v1TLlrck29Z2eatgbM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON 33019942 33339956 33939917 34119860 34109699 33929609
33099603 32909617 32829677 32899854 33019942=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...4.00+ IN


=3D =3D =3D
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