ACUS11 KWNS 282345
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282344=20
TXZ000-290145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0607
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0644 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Areas affected...Southwest Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 282344Z - 290145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe thunderstorm will pose a risk of large
hail for a couple of hours over parts of southwest Texas. A watch
is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...An isolated intense thunderstorm has formed in Terrell
county TX, just east of Sanderson. This cell formed along the
surface dryline in a very hot/moist and unstable air mass. This
storm will likely persist for a couple of hours, tracking into Val
Verde county. Left-splits from this cell could affect southern
Crockett county as well. Very steep mid-level lapse rates, high
CAPE, and supercell structures will continue to pose a risk of large
hail over 2 inches and locally damaging wind gusts. Coverage of
storms is expected to remain sparse, so a watch is not currently
anticipated.

..Hart/Mosier.. 04/28/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!96Qen_wuGlLZ_RRmeqAAS7jnKkXqp2VzLoCGEQnCrmo6LL4ogzLdJ-Bn-oqIniq-XSl-N-dB4= z_mvDGdquVgbWvsKW0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 30370191 30600122 30170043 29790035 29610064 29530113
29890192 30140208 30370191=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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