150
AXNT20 KNHC 031004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Mar 3 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high
pressure N of the area and the Colombian low will continue to
support strong to near gale-force NE to E winds and rough to very
rough seas across the south-central and portions of the SW
Caribbean through at least Sat. Winds will pulse to gale-force
over these waters at night with the added component of nocturnal
drainage flow.

Central and Eastern Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A previous
gale force wind event off the Canary Islands generated a large NE
swell with very rough seas to 13 ft. The swell has propagated
from this source region, with the very rough seas currently over
the waters from 12N to 21N between 36W and 53W. These seas will
gradually subside from east to west through tonight. Rough seas
are then forecast to subside E of the Lesser Antilles this weekend.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 05N08W to 02N11W. The
ITCZ extends from that point to 03S26W to the coast of Brazil
near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing from 03S to
06N between 05W and 45W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface trough is analyzed in the NE Gulf along 87W with
little convection near it. Surface ridging dominates elsewhere
and supports moderate to fresh E winds E of 87W, and moderate or
weaker winds elsewhere. Seas are mainly slight basin-wide.

For the forecast, high pressure will extend from the N central
Atlantic southwestward across the region through the week, with
the resultant pressure gradient supporting moderate to fresh east
to southeast winds across the Gulf, except in the Bay of Campeche
where winds will be mostly moderate northeast to east. Fresh to
strong winds will occur nocturnally off the northern Yucatan
Peninsula starting today.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see Special Features section above regarding a Gale Warning
in the south-central Caribbean.

Surface ridging from strong high pressure centered N of the area
is supporting fresh to near-gale winds over the eastern and
central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh NE winds in the lee side
of Cuba and the Windward Passage. Seas in the regions of highest
winds are moderate, except for rough seas in the south-central and
SE Caribbean.

For the forecast, a broad area of high pressure over the central
Atlantic will support fresh to near gale-force trades along with
moderate to rough seas across the central and eastern Caribbean
through Sat night. Winds off Colombia will pulse to gale-force
during the nocturnal hours through the weekend. Fresh to strong
northeast winds in the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba
will continue to pulse through the forecast period. In the Gulf of
Honduras, fresh to strong winds will begin to pulse at night from
Thu through Sat. Elsewhere, rough to very rough seas in wind
generated east swell over the tropical N Atlantic will begin to
slowly subside on Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see Special Features above for information on a significant swell event.

A strong Azores High extending a ridge into the deep tropical
waters continues to support a broad area of fresh to strong NE to
E winds and rough to very rough seas from the coast of W Africa
all the way to the Lesser Antilles and between the ITCZ and 26N.
Over the E Atlantic subtropical waters, the passage of a cold
front is bringing strong to near gale-force N to NW winds to the
waters just N of the Canary Islands. Long period NW swell is
supporting very rough seas to 15 ft within this area of very
strong winds. Lastly, a stationary front extends from 31N56W
southwestward to 24N69W being followed by strong NE to E winds
and rough seas to 11 ft extending westward toward 74W. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms prevail along and E of the front to about 55W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will become
diffuse by this evening. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds
along with rough to very rough seas behind the front will diminish
tonight. However, seas will linger into Wed while expanding
southeastward and merging with similar seas south of 25N east of
Bahamas. Otherwise, strong high pressure will become centered over
the western N Atlantic through the next few days. It will be the
main feature controlling the general flow wind pattern across the
region, with fresh to strong east winds confined to mostly south of 25N.

$$
Ramos
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)