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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0129

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Mar 3 23:53:40 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 032353
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 032352=20
    MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-040545-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0129
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0552 PM CST Tue Mar 03 2026

    Areas affected...portions of eastern New York into southern and
    central New England

    Concerning...Freezing rain=20

    Valid 032352Z - 040545Z

    SUMMARY...An area of freezing rain, with some snow on the northern
    edge, will continue for the next 4-6 hours.

    DISCUSSION...A broad precipitation shield is ongoing across portions
    of eastern New York into southern and central New England this
    afternoon amidst broad isentropic ascent within the 925-700 mb
    layer. Area VWPs have sampled increasing 1-3 km AGL flow over the
    past few hours to 40-50 knots. Aided by ascent within the right
    entrance region of an upper-level jet streak, this is supporting
    ongoing freezing rain, with rates occasionally exceeding 0.06" per 3
    hours. Forecast soundings indicate the 850 mb warm nose will expand
    farther north this evening amidst the low-level warm air advection
    regime. With surface temperatures forecast to remain below freezing
    (upper 20s to lower 30s), expectation is for freezing rain to
    persist for the next 4-6 hours with a gradual northward expansion.
    The greatest potential for heavier rates is anticipated along a
    corridor from far eastern New York across western Massachusetts and
    into far southern New Hampshire where the strongest ascent is
    forecast to overlap favorable thermodynamic profiles to support the
    heaviest precipitation rates. Farther to the north, maximum column
    temperatures are likely to remain below freezing and are expected to
    support snow as the primary precipitation type. Veering low-level
    winds and drier mid-level air will then accompany a cold frontal
    passage later tonight, bringing an end to precipitation by 8-10 UTC
    (3-5 AM EST).

    ..Chalmers/Lyons.. 03/03/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_T9D-sNZVh1TlVIlaCcbt-YZtm1UPljyD1nL4IxnzS_z6Znc1SBAjxQgVhDVpYJpWEWS7Q4i8= LUVRg1zxtraRRPoIpI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...

    LAT...LON 41897071 41637094 41387151 41317225 41277299 41237350
    41357412 41527440 42177445 42557418 42907344 43167266
    43417190 43617116 43547064 43347049 43127046 42807061
    42427065 42007066 41897071=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)