ACUS11 KWNS 040528
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040527=20
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-040800-

Mesoscale Discussion 0130
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 PM CST Tue Mar 03 2026

Areas affected...Parts of the TX/OK Panhandles...western into
north-central OK...south-central KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 040527Z - 040800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and perhaps locally
gusty winds are possible overnight.

DISCUSSION...Elevated convection has recently developed across parts
of the TX Panhandle, with increasing midlevel cumulus noted into far
northwest OK. A further increase in elevated convection is expected
with time overnight, as a mid/upper-level shortwave trough currently
over the central/southern Rockies begins to impinge upon a reservoir
of moderate elevated buoyancy (with MUCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg).=20

Steep midlevel lapse rates (as noted in regional 00Z soundings) and
strong mid/upper-level flow (with effective shear of near/above 40
kt) are favorable for organized elevated storms with large hail,
potentially into the 1.5 - 2 inch diameter range. However, recent
CAM guidance generally depicts a transition to a cluster or linear
mode with time, which could temper the magnitude and coverage of the
hail threat to some extent. Also, despite a substantial cool/stable near-surface layer to the north of an advancing cold front, locally
gusty surface winds cannot be ruled out if any substantial
clustering or upscale growth occurs.

..Dean/Mosier.. 03/04/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7cmXVFPhD-9FxlBqDecxySX8fwf2UwAiNhNrkG0w5KQlqewVeXWa9JlqXc_tiSDVxYyozYICx= 2VMuIF5FNbTv2iAnPg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 34269994 34520122 34620239 35670160 36210088 37469902
37749750 37659652 37449606 36889643 36329688 35229797
34289978 34269994=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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